Ping An: Special Report on The COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasts (Issue 3)

Ping An: Special Report on The COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasts (Issue 3)

PR Newswire

HONG KONG and SHANGHAI, April 28, 2020

HONG KONG and SHANGHAI, April 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (hereafter "Ping An", the "Company" or the "Group", HKEX: 02318; SSE: 601318) today published a third report on The COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasts by Ping An Smart City Research Institute, Ping An Macroeconomic Research Institute and Ping An Health Technology Research Institute.

Overview

1. The second wave of global outbreaks: Europe and the U.S. have entered into a moderation period (in line with our forecast on April 8). We predicted that the second wave would reach the peak of new confirmed cases by April 15, with a total of more than 2 million confirmed cases. The actual number of confirmed cases as of April 15 at 12 p.m. China Standard Time was 2,016,305. The U.S., U.K., Turkey and Canada reached the peak of new confirmed cases on April 9, April 11, April 12 and April 18 respectively. In particular, the peak of the new confirmed cases of the U.S., U.K. and Turkey in line with the April 8 forecast, while Canada reached its peak later than predicted.

2. Countries and territories where the epidemic had initially eased in the first outbreak, such as China, still face the risk of a second outbreak.

 

Fig. 1 Stages of overseas entry containment in China

 

 

Fig. 2 Hypothetical impacts of overseas entry containment measures on China's outcome by April 20

 

 

Fig. 3 Impact of hypothetical changes to containment measures in China, April 20 to May 31

 

3. Countries and territories where the epidemic initially eased in the first outbreak, such as Singapore, face the risk of a second outbreak.

 

Fig. 4 Development of the epidemic and containment policies in Singapore

 

 

Fig. 5 Prediction of trend of second outbreak in Singapore

 

4. Focus on the next stage: the risk of a second outbreak and the third wave of global outbreaks, mainly in developing countries.

 

Fig. 6 Development of the epidemic in Brazil, India, Indonesia and Africa to April 20

 

Download the full report: Special Report - The COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasts (Issue 3)

Disclaimer

This research report is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.

Photo -  https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1160834/Fig_1_Stages_overseas_entry_containment_China.jpg
Photo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1160830/Fig_2_Hypothetical_impacts_overseas_entry_containment_measures_China_s_outcome.jpg
Photo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1160833/Fig_3_Impact_hypothetical_containment_measures_China_April_20_May.jpg
Photo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1160829/Fig_4_Development_epidemic_containment_policies_Singapore.jpg
Photo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1160831/Fig_5_Prediction_trend_outbreak_Singapore.jpg
Photo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1160832/Fig_6_Development_epidemic_Brazil_India_Indonesia_Africa_April_20.jpg

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